Probability

4. Conditional Probability

Let us consider an example, where we flip 3 different fair coins and the sample space is:

{HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

Then probability that the first coin comes up heads = ({HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT }) = \(\cfrac{4}{8} = \cfrac{1}{2}\)

Now suppose we have an additional information that at least 2 of the coins are showing heads, this informant has changed our available information, now the sample space will be reduced to ({HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}). Out of these 4 equally likely outcomes, there are 3 cases when first coin is showing head.  Hence the probability that the first coin is heads, given that at least two of the three coins are heads is \(\frac{3}{4}\). This is an example of conditional probability. We use a mathematical notation 

\[P({\rm{First}}\;{\rm{coin}}\;{\rm{head}}\;{\rm{|}}\;{\rm{at}}\;{\rm{least}}\;{\rm{2}}\;{\rm{heads}}) = \frac{3}{4}\]

Given two events \(A\) and \(B\), with \(P(B) > 0\), the conditional probability of \(A\) given that \(B\) has happened is equal to:

 \[P(A|B) = \frac{{P(A \cap B)}}{{P(B)}}\]

Example 01:

Three dice are thrown, find the probability that the sum of the outcomes is 16, given that the outcome of one of the dice is 5.

There are six cases when the sum of the outcomes is 16, these cases are (6, 6, 4), (6, 4, 6), (4, 6, 6), (5, 6, 5), (6, 5, 5), (5, 5, 6).
Probability of getting a sum of 16(given that one outcome is 5) \( = \frac{3}{{6}}=\frac{1}{2}\).